Introduction: Catheter ablation is considered to improve symptoms and quality of life for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and may be regarded as first-line treatment compared with medical therapy especially in paroxysmal forms.
Methods: We enrolled 148 patients (mean age 52+9.2 years, male 87 (59%)) with paroxysmal (47%) and persistent (53%) AF which underwent radiofrequency ablation (RFA). Follow up period was 5 years.
Results: The majority of patients experienced relapse of AF during the first 6 months after RFA (54 of 77 cases). Significant correlations were obtained between recurrence of arrhythmia and dilation of the left atrium (LA) (r = -0.58, p < 0.001), the patients age (r = 0.66, p < 0.001), antiarrhythmic treatment (r = 0.40, p < 0.001), aortic (r = 0.55, p < 0.001) and mitral regurgitation (r = 0.41, p < 0.001). Logistic regression equation takes the following form: risk of AF recurrence = -14.4+ 0.12*age + 0.21*LA diameter– 0.5*previous antiarrhythmic treatment+ 2.33*aortic regurgitation+ 0.89*mitral regurgitation.
Conclusions: This mathematical model evaluating initial risk of post-operative AF recurrence should be used before RFA to optimize screening of patients with favorable prognosis of sinus rhythm maintenance.